Friday, April 5, 2013

Ten 2013 Phillies Bold predictions

Even though the season is three games underway, I felt the need to lay out some predictions for the season. The ten are in no particular order.

1. Phillies make the Wild Card. 

I think there's plenty of leftover wins the Phillies will pick up this year, especially if Utley, Howard, and Halladay are relatively healthy all year. The bullpen will also be better as a whole. I see the Nationals and Braves coming down a bit(but still both making the playoffs) and the Dodgers being overrated.

2. Domonic Brown puts up a .350+ OBP

Between the changes he's made to his swing, the stellar plate discipline, and some better luck, this is the year he breaks out.

3. Utley plays 130 games and leads Phillies position players in WAR

Pretty much crossing my fingers on this. He's still the Phillies most valuable position player when healthy.

4. Amaro doesn't make an idiotic trade deadline deal. 

Please don't let something like this happen again. With my prediction of Brown stepping up, I doubt the Phills  will seek a major offensive player. Obviously they could use another good outfielder since Young/Nix/Mayberry isn't too good, but I think Amaro sticks with Young because of his past RBIzzz. If he does make a move, I can see it being an upgrade in the rotation over Lannan.

5. Aumont leads Phillies relievers in ERA 

I'm still not entirely sold on Adams, who I think will be much closer to his 2012 season than 2010-2011. His velocity was already on the decline before last year's injury. As for Papelbon, his declined velocity may be a sign of things to come.

6. Howard doesn't hit 30 homers.

For some reason, such as WIP's Anthony Gargano, people think a healthy Howard all season means 40+ homers. Unless he's found the Fountain of Youth, it's not happening. He hasn't hit 40 homers since McNabb was still the Eagles' quarterback.

7. Michael Young isn't a total albatross in the field. 

Despite not playing third-base full time since 2010, I think his move in Texas was more out of necessity than Mark Reynolds-esque glove butchery. I'd be fine with a -10 to -15 UZR/150.

8. Cliff Lee finishes top 3 in Cy Young voting. 

If someone tells you Lee isn't good anymore because he had 6 wins last year, they are clueless. The only downside is he's in the same league as Kershaw and Strasburg.

9. Howard finishes top 20 in MVP voting. 

This may seem counter-intuitive to #6, but I'm banking on him eclipsing 100 RBI(thank you Revere, Rollins and Utley), despite having a poor offensive season, and MVP voters love themselves some RBI.

10. Roy Halladay has a sub 3.50 ERA

I still have faith he's a pretty decent pitcher.

Honorable Mentions:
Revere steals 50 bases.
Sebastian Valle falls off prospect radar quite a bit.
Roman Quinn steals 70 in the minors.
Rollins puts up another 4.0+ fWAR season.



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