Thursday, October 11, 2012

Phillies position players WAR wrapup

Player fWAR WARP rWAR
Ruiz 5.5 4.9 4.4
Rollins 4.9 3 2.3
Utley 3.2 2.7 2.9
Victorino 2.2 1.7 1.3
Pierre 1.7 1.7 1.9
Frandsen 1.6 0.8 1.5
Kratz 1.4 1.3 1.4
Pence 1.3 0.3 0.7
Polanco 0.6 0.3 0.3
Galvis 0.6 -0.2 0.6
Ruf 0.5 0.4 0.3
Nix 0.5 0.2 0.1
Mayberry 0.4 1 0.5
Schneider 0.2 0 0
Orr 0.2 0.2 0.1
Fontenot 0.2 0 0.1
Pridie 0.2 0.1 0.1
Luna 0 -0.1 0
Schierholtz 0 0 -0.1
Lerud 0 -0.1 -0.1
Brown -0.2 -0.2 -1
Martinez -0.5 -0.7 -0.2
Wiggington -0.07 -0.3 -1.7
Ryan Howard -1 -1 -1.2

Thursday, October 4, 2012

What we know about Darin Ruf

As much as fans what to anoint Darin Ruf the next Ryan Howard after just 12 games, the truth is we still don't really know anything about how he'll fair in the majors. He's mashed AA ball, but there's been plenty of others who have done the same to fail in the majors. However, 37 plate appearances in the majors tells us pretty much nothing.

The first offensive statistic that becomes statistically reliable is swing percentage, but he's still 13 plate appearances away from meeting that threshold. His average, home run rate, strikeouts, walks and pretty much anything else you can think of are all too early to tell. However I do know his .394 isolated slugging and .400 batting average of balls in play are both utterly unsustainable.

I'm not saying he cannot be a productive or useful player. Personally, I think he can be for a couple years as he's entering his prime. While his defense may be suspect at best, I'm not sure it could be worse than his predecessors, Raul Ibanez and Pat Burrell. And I'm confident he can best Ibanez's paltry .245/.289/.419 line in 2011, especially if Ruf is used in a platoon.

The best case scenario could have been if RAJ never signed Howard to that ridiculous contract and the team could have moved on from Howard's precipitous decline and salary right to Ruf. That's not so much a vote of confidence on Ruf as it is realizing Howard's vast negatives wiping away most of his value. An even more appropriate move would be strictly platooning the two players at first. But since Manuel cannot dare sit a player making $20 million and the Phillies front office are so out of touch with how the game has changed, the will never happen.