Most Phillies fans are unison in extending Hamels, unlike the aftermath of the preceding reference circa 2009. My hope in finding a multitude of asinine comments condemning the move isn't that of an Andy Dugresne(I had no idea it was spelled that way). Those comments right now are saved for the trade Lee, Victorino, Pence, Polanco, and even Halladay debate. Throw in some Kyle Kendrick and there's plenty of material for another day.
I'm a bit torn with the deal. On one hand, I realize that means sacrificing another part of the team(most likely Victorino) but on the other, Hamels is a terrific, under-30 pitcher on a team that can no longer afford to look back now. In my head, I can quick calculate the deal may be a slight overpay. But just as quickly, I can just attribute some of that overpaying comes with there being fewer 4.5-6.0 win pitchers.
Tom Tango over at The Book projects Hamels' contract as break-even value wise. However, there's a twist of negativity with the inherent higher risk of injury that comes with pitchers.
Personally, I think the cost per win over the years will be closer to a flatter 7 to 8 percent average than what Tango did here. I am also curious on using my own WAR projections using estimated FIP decline given the aging curves for pitchers of Hamels' ilk. Something similar to the recent pitching aging curves post on Fanraphs. If I knew SQL better, it would be much easier.
Year Wins $/W Worth
2013 5.0 $5.00 $25.0
2014 4.8 $5.25 $25.2
2015 4.5 $5.57 $25.0
2016 4.1 $5.95 $24.4
2017 3.6 $6.43 $23.2
2018 3.0 $7.01 $21.0I started at 5 wins, and dropped by 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 wins each year.
I started at 5MM$ per win, and increaseed it by 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% each year.The total came in at 143.8MM$.I’m not saying Cole Hamels WILL do all that. I am saying this is what the Phillies are paying for. If the cost per win is higher, and will accelerate faster, Hamels doesn’t have to do as much.Anyway, under these assumptions, Cole Hamels has to generate 25 wins. He’s pitched in just about six full calendar years already, and in those six years, Fangraphs shows Hamels with 25.4 wins, while Baseball-Reference shows him with 25.7 wins.In order for the Phillies to break-even here, Cole Hamels has to basically continue to pitch into his early 30s as he has pitched since his early 20s… and not get hurt.Did I mention Cole Hamels is a pitcher?
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs looked at more from more of a market point of view, comparing it with other pitchers' deals.
So, for this to be an overpay, you have to believe that Hamels is not actually a premium pitcher. And, really, the only way to come to that conclusion is if you still judge pitchers by wins and losses.Furthermore,
In that situation, backtracking on the commitment to win with this group isn’t really an option. You can’t make that many win-now moves at the expense of your future, and then decide that you went too far and it’s time to pinch pennies. In the Phillies situation, only two decisions make sense – keep trying to win as many championships as possible until these guys can’t play anymore, or tear the whole thing down and start over. Letting Hamels go in the interest of fiscal prudence is trying to cross a bridge you already burned to the ground.
Sabermetric-friendly Phillies blog, Crashburn Alley was very positive of the deal.
This contract extension is arguably the best move of GM Ruben Amaro’s career and one that will be met with near-universal praise. Phillies fans should be thrilled that Hamels will continue to don red pinstripes through at least 2018, continuing his legacy, and the Phillies will be in a prime position to attempt to compete again as soon as 2013. In a time when the Phillies are sellers for the first time since 2006, today is a very good day for the Phillies and their fans. Cole Hamels will be around for a long, long time.Of course there isn't a whole lot of competition on the mantle for Ruben Amaro's best moves.