Friday, March 16, 2012

Rabblerabblerabble: Domonic Brown sucks Facebook roll call.

Recently, the blog Phillies Nation posted about the possibility of Domonic Brown playing left field this year. Like they typically do with their posts, they put it on their Facebook wall. If you haven't been on Phillies Nation's Facebook page before, it rivals perhaps only Philly.com in ridiculous comments on the web.

I find it ironic so many complain about his defense, which is admittedly bad, but yet would give fellow bad defensive fielder, Raul Ibanez a free pass, despite also being unable to get on base at the plate in 2011. Many of these same fans also clamor to replace terrific fielding Polanco with poor fielding David Wright or Aramis Ramirez at a much more important position.


Saturday, March 10, 2012

Projecting 2012: Ryan Howard

There's noticeable differences between the various projection systems thanks to Ryan Howard's injury. Some have accounted for it, others have not. You can tell which are which. I will withhold any Ryan Howard-RBI jokes for another day, but I am not forecasting a good season for the "Big Piece." Tack on his poor baserunning and an expected drop in fielding range, and he may just be above replacement level come season's end.


System  

G

PA

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

R

BB

K

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BABIP

2011

152

644

557

141

30

1

33

116

81

75

172

1

.253

.346

.488

.235

.303

ZIPS

144

630

540

134

26

3

32

113

79

67

173

2

.248

.335

.485

.237

.300

Marcel

-

584

516

134

26

3

28

98

76

58

150

4

.260

.339

.484

.225

.314

Steamer

-

471

409

105

23

2

25

77

64

54

125

1

.256

.347

.504

.249

.303

Bill James

155

675

594

158

30

2

40

128

92

81

189

1

.266

.360

.525

.259

.323

Rotochamp

-

331

290

73

15

1

17

44

42

37

90

1

.252

.344

.486

.234

.306

My own

108

460

409

102

20

1

21

75

58

47

126

1

.249

.332

.456

.207

.309

Friday, March 9, 2012

Gary Matthews and First Pitch After a Mound Visit (per Fangraphs.com)

By now, I'm pretty much immune to any assertion "Sarge" makes as it's usually baseless or wrong. Unfortunately many Phillies fans will accept anything they hear on broadcasts as law. Fangraphs caught wind of a recent theory by Matthews and proved it false.

Fangraphs- First Pitch After a Mound Visit

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Projecting 2012: Jimmy Rollins


System  

G

PA

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

R

BB

K

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BABIP

2011

142

631

567

152

22

2

16

63

87

58

59

30

.268

.338

.399

.131

.275

ZIPS

126

573

515

138

26

4

13

62

74

48

53

25

.268

.330

.410

.142

.276

Marcel

-

555

505

126

24

3

13

55

70

44

60

24

.250

.310

.386

.137

.262

Steamer

-

619

559

145

31

5

15

64

84

52

60

24

.259

.324

.411

.152

.267

Bill James

140

626

573

150

31

5

16

62

89

53

62

25

.262

.328

.417

.155

.271

Rotochamp

-

636

575

148

25

3

16

52

89

58

59

29

.257

.329

.395

.137

.262

My own

134

596

542

140

24

3

13

61

80

53

122

23

.258

.326

.383

.125

.270

Monday, March 5, 2012

Projecting 2012: Hunter Pence

Expect some regression for Hunter Pence in 2012. Unfortunately, lot of fans will probably be fooled by Pence's home run surge, increased walk-rate, and continued BABIP success after the Phillies acquired him before the trade deadline. While Pence has exhibited such .360+ BABIP seasons before(2007), three years of .301-.308 BABIP seasons are sandwiched in between. Also don't expect him to continue walking in 11 percent of his plate appearances with the Phills. He's previously shown similar sample size spurts in walking at a high rate, only to regress back to his normal levels. 

Some writers and fans think 30+ home runs are attainable, but I don't see it happening. He just doesn't hit enough fly balls to have a legitimate shot at it. His groundball-rate has been between 51.3 and 53.1 percent the last four years. That isn't going to change much. People point to him playing in CBP as a factor, but the home run park factor for right-handed hitters in CBP isn't much higher than that of Minute Maid Park. 




System  

G

PA

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

R

BB

K

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BABIP

2011

154

668

606

190

38

5

22

97

84

56

124

8

.314

.370

.502

.188

.361

ZIPS

156

661

605

170

31

4

21

95

85

49

115

12

.281

.334

.450

.169

.315

Cairo

155

657

600

172

31

3

22

86

83

51

118

12

.286

.342

.460

.174

-

Steamer

-

627

574

162

34

3

22

88

73

49

110

8

.283

.339

.471

.188

.315

Bill James

158

666

613

179

36

4

25

91

86

53

120

10

.292

.349

.486

.194

.329

Rotochamp

-

648

595

170

33

4

22

101

89

52

116

10

.286

.344

.466

.180

.324

My own

158

681

627

179

32

3

25

96

89

53

122

11

.286

.343

.447

.181

.321

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Projecting 2012: Shane Victorino


System  

G

PA

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

R

BB

K

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BABIP

2011

132

586

519

145

27

16

17

61

95

55

63

19

.279

.355

.491

.212

.292

ZIPS

145

644

576

158

29

12

16

68

91

53

73

23

.274

.342

.450

.176

.290

Cairo

113

500

448

122

23

8

12

51

73

43

59

19

.272

.340

.440

.168

-

Steamer

-

611

546

149

31

9

15

74

70

53

71

20

.273

.342

.445

.171

.291

Bill James

149

646

592

164

30

8

17

64

97

54

77

24

.277

.344

.441

.164

.295

Rotochamp

-

606

545

146

27

13

16

70

83

55

68

22

.268

.342

.457

.189

.282

My own

145

641

576

162

29

12

16

67

89

56

71

23

.282

.351

.459

.177

.299