Rabblerabblerabble: Domonic Brown sucks Facebook roll call.

Recently, the blog Phillies Nation posted about the possibility of Domonic Brown playing left field this year. Like they typically do with their posts, they put it on their Facebook wall. If you haven't been on Phillies Nation's Facebook page before, it rivals perhaps only Philly.com in ridiculous comments on the web.

I find it ironic so many complain about his defense, which is admittedly bad, but yet would give fellow bad defensive fielder, Raul Ibanez a free pass, despite also being unable to get on base at the plate in 2011. Many of these same fans also clamor to replace terrific fielding Polanco with poor fielding David Wright or Aramis Ramirez at a much more important position.

Projecting 2012: Ryan Howard

There's noticeable differences between the various projection systems thanks to Ryan Howard's injury. Some have accounted for it, others have not. You can tell which are which. I will withhold any Ryan Howard-RBI jokes for another day, but I am not forecasting a good season for the "Big Piece." Tack on his poor baserunning and an expected drop in fielding range, and he may just be above replacement level come season's end.

System	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2011	152	644	557	141	30	1	33	116	81	75	172	1	.253	.346	.488	.235	.303
ZIPS	144	630	540	134	26	3	32	113	79	67	173	2	.248	.335	.485	.237	.300
Marcel	-	584	516	134	26	3	28	98	76	58	150	4	.260	.339	.484	.225	.314
Steamer	-	471	409	105	23	2	25	77	64	54	125	1	.256	.347	.504	.249	.303
Bill James	155	675	594	158	30	2	40	128	92	81	189	1	.266	.360	.525	.259	.323
Rotochamp	-	331	290	73	15	1	17	44	42	37	90	1	.252	.344	.486	.234	.306
My own	108	460	409	102	20	1	21	75	58	47	126	1	.249	.332	.456	.207	.309

Gary Matthews and First Pitch After a Mound Visit (per Fangraphs.com)

By now, I'm pretty much immune to any assertion "Sarge" makes as it's usually baseless or wrong. Unfortunately many Phillies fans will accept anything they hear on broadcasts as law. Fangraphs caught wind of a recent theory by Matthews and proved it false.

Fangraphs- First Pitch After a Mound Visit

Projecting 2012: Jimmy Rollins

System	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2011	142	631	567	152	22	2	16	63	87	58	59	30	.268	.338	.399	.131	.275
ZIPS	126	573	515	138	26	4	13	62	74	48	53	25	.268	.330	.410	.142	.276
Marcel	-	555	505	126	24	3	13	55	70	44	60	24	.250	.310	.386	.137	.262
Steamer	-	619	559	145	31	5	15	64	84	52	60	24	.259	.324	.411	.152	.267
Bill James	140	626	573	150	31	5	16	62	89	53	62	25	.262	.328	.417	.155	.271
Rotochamp	-	636	575	148	25	3	16	52	89	58	59	29	.257	.329	.395	.137	.262
My own	134	596	542	140	24	3	13	61	80	53	122	23	.258	.326	.383	.125	.270

Projecting 2012: Hunter Pence

Expect some regression for Hunter Pence in 2012. Unfortunately, lot of fans will probably be fooled by Pence's home run surge, increased walk-rate, and continued BABIP success after the Phillies acquired him before the trade deadline. While Pence has exhibited such .360+ BABIP seasons before(2007), three years of .301-.308 BABIP seasons are sandwiched in between. Also don't expect him to continue walking in 11 percent of his plate appearances with the Phills. He's previously shown similar sample size spurts in walking at a high rate, only to regress back to his normal levels. 

Some writers and fans think 30+ home runs are attainable, but I don't see it happening. He just doesn't hit enough fly balls to have a legitimate shot at it. His groundball-rate has been between 51.3 and 53.1 percent the last four years. That isn't going to change much. People point to him playing in CBP as a factor, but the home run park factor for right-handed hitters in CBP isn't much higher than that of Minute Maid Park. 

System	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2011	154	668	606	190	38	5	22	97	84	56	124	8	.314	.370	.502	.188	.361
ZIPS	156	661	605	170	31	4	21	95	85	49	115	12	.281	.334	.450	.169	.315
Cairo	155	657	600	172	31	3	22	86	83	51	118	12	.286	.342	.460	.174	-
Steamer	-	627	574	162	34	3	22	88	73	49	110	8	.283	.339	.471	.188	.315
Bill James	158	666	613	179	36	4	25	91	86	53	120	10	.292	.349	.486	.194	.329
Rotochamp	-	648	595	170	33	4	22	101	89	52	116	10	.286	.344	.466	.180	.324
My own	158	681	627	179	32	3	25	96	89	53	122	11	.286	.343	.447	.181	.321

Projecting 2012: Shane Victorino

System	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2011	132	586	519	145	27	16	17	61	95	55	63	19	.279	.355	.491	.212	.292
ZIPS	145	644	576	158	29	12	16	68	91	53	73	23	.274	.342	.450	.176	.290
Cairo	113	500	448	122	23	8	12	51	73	43	59	19	.272	.340	.440	.168	-
Steamer	-	611	546	149	31	9	15	74	70	53	71	20	.273	.342	.445	.171	.291
Bill James	149	646	592	164	30	8	17	64	97	54	77	24	.277	.344	.441	.164	.295
Rotochamp	-	606	545	146	27	13	16	70	83	55	68	22	.268	.342	.457	.189	.282
My own	145	641	576	162	29	12	16	67	89	56	71	23	.282	.351	.459	.177	.299