Projecting 2012: Hunter Pence

Expect some regression for Hunter Pence in 2012. Unfortunately, lot of fans will probably be fooled by Pence's home run surge, increased walk-rate, and continued BABIP success after the Phillies acquired him before the trade deadline. While Pence has exhibited such .360+ BABIP seasons before(2007), three years of .301-.308 BABIP seasons are sandwiched in between. Also don't expect him to continue walking in 11 percent of his plate appearances with the Phills. He's previously shown similar sample size spurts in walking at a high rate, only to regress back to his normal levels. 

Some writers and fans think 30+ home runs are attainable, but I don't see it happening. He just doesn't hit enough fly balls to have a legitimate shot at it. His groundball-rate has been between 51.3 and 53.1 percent the last four years. That isn't going to change much. People point to him playing in CBP as a factor, but the home run park factor for right-handed hitters in CBP isn't much higher than that of Minute Maid Park. 

System	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2011	154	668	606	190	38	5	22	97	84	56	124	8	.314	.370	.502	.188	.361
ZIPS	156	661	605	170	31	4	21	95	85	49	115	12	.281	.334	.450	.169	.315
Cairo	155	657	600	172	31	3	22	86	83	51	118	12	.286	.342	.460	.174	-
Steamer	-	627	574	162	34	3	22	88	73	49	110	8	.283	.339	.471	.188	.315
Bill James	158	666	613	179	36	4	25	91	86	53	120	10	.292	.349	.486	.194	.329
Rotochamp	-	648	595	170	33	4	22	101	89	52	116	10	.286	.344	.466	.180	.324
My own	158	681	627	179	32	3	25	96	89	53	122	11	.286	.343	.447	.181	.321