Monday, March 5, 2012

Projecting 2012: Hunter Pence

Expect some regression for Hunter Pence in 2012. Unfortunately, lot of fans will probably be fooled by Pence's home run surge, increased walk-rate, and continued BABIP success after the Phillies acquired him before the trade deadline. While Pence has exhibited such .360+ BABIP seasons before(2007), three years of .301-.308 BABIP seasons are sandwiched in between. Also don't expect him to continue walking in 11 percent of his plate appearances with the Phills. He's previously shown similar sample size spurts in walking at a high rate, only to regress back to his normal levels. 

Some writers and fans think 30+ home runs are attainable, but I don't see it happening. He just doesn't hit enough fly balls to have a legitimate shot at it. His groundball-rate has been between 51.3 and 53.1 percent the last four years. That isn't going to change much. People point to him playing in CBP as a factor, but the home run park factor for right-handed hitters in CBP isn't much higher than that of Minute Maid Park. 




System  

G

PA

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

R

BB

K

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BABIP

2011

154

668

606

190

38

5

22

97

84

56

124

8

.314

.370

.502

.188

.361

ZIPS

156

661

605

170

31

4

21

95

85

49

115

12

.281

.334

.450

.169

.315

Cairo

155

657

600

172

31

3

22

86

83

51

118

12

.286

.342

.460

.174

-

Steamer

-

627

574

162

34

3

22

88

73

49

110

8

.283

.339

.471

.188

.315

Bill James

158

666

613

179

36

4

25

91

86

53

120

10

.292

.349

.486

.194

.329

Rotochamp

-

648

595

170

33

4

22

101

89

52

116

10

.286

.344

.466

.180

.324

My own

158

681

627

179

32

3

25

96

89

53

122

11

.286

.343

.447

.181

.321

No comments:

Post a Comment